Below are some points about our primary adversaries,
China, Russia and Iran, collected from reports and observations by experts in
the field of international relations.
POPULATION;
CHINA: The present population is around 1.4 billion, with
a prediction that China will have 1.5 billion people by 2030, and then will
decline as the aftereffects of China’s long-term “one-child” policy result in a
large aging population, with fewer young people to support them.
RUSSIA: Since the breakup of the Soviet Union, Russia’s
population has entered a long-term decline, now below 100 million, with a
slight current uptick currently. Its former Central Asian republics have seen
increases in population and some try to migrate into Russia for employment.
IRAN: Iran’s population grew rapidly in the last few
decades, but now slowing from 4% increase per year to about 1.5%. The present
population is about 83 million, and could be 100 million by 2050. About half of
the population is under 35, which creates problems for the aging ayatollahs.
ECONOMY:
CHINA: China has had rapid economic growth in the last few
decades, as the ruling Communist Party opened to more capitalism, but growth
has slowed to 6.2% this year, under stricter rule by President Xi. It is the
second largest economy in the world and actually has a GDP larger than the
United States. Urban Chinese are building a substantial middle class, but rural
people live in a much poorer economy. China intends to be the largest economy
in the world, spreading its influence to surrounding countries, as well as
investments in Africa and South America. China is pressing its “Belt and Road
Initiative” to re-create the Silk Road through Central Asia to Europe.
The United States and China have such an intermingled
network of trade and manufacturing, that every threat or imposition of tariffs
and trade disputes rattles stock markets worldwide. The situation in Hong Kong
is critical, after the latest voting and Trump’s support of the protestors.
RUSSIA: Export of oil and natural gas is the largest
sector of the Russian economy. Trade with the United States has grown to about
$20 billion in 2019, but is a fraction of trade with China. After the fall of the
Soviet Union, there were efforts to create a capitalist economy, which instead
led to a “Mafia-style” economy with oligarchs allied with the communist system
looting industries and resources, and leaving most Russians poorer.
IRAN: the economy of Iran is in shambles, in part because
of US sanctions, and misrule by the religious leaders and the Iranian military.
Iran is the most sophisticated country of the Islamic world, with significant
nuclear development and huge reserves of oil and gas.
MILITARY:
CHINA: At this time, China ranks second in the world as a
military power, with more than two million active duty personnel, one aircraft
carrier, a large fleet of small naval vessels, and bases being built in the
South China sea. Above that, is the threat of DF-21 supersonic “ship-killing
missiles” which can reach 1246 miles from five land-based sites and cover far
out into the Pacific. Our carrier task forces do not have a good “iron dome”
defense against flocks of such weapons. Unlike Genghis Khan, China has never
reached far out to conquer other countries, but seems to expand its hegemony
with a combination of military threat and trade to its near neighbors, trade
and investing elsewhere. We have four carrier task forces in the Pacific, with only
168 vessels active around the world. Taiwan and petroleum resources between
Vietnam and the Philippines are under threat. A large part of their cyber
warfare starts with the military and threatens us.
RUSSIA: Russia ranks as the fourth military power in the
world, with about 900,000 active duty personnel, missiles and nuclear weapons.
Its air, armor, missile and nuclear submarine assets are well-known, but parts
of its military are poorly maintained and neglect has led to occasional
accidents and severe pollution. More than China, Russia seeks to extend its
influence with aggression, as in Ukraine, Crimea and Syria, or with support to
Cuba, Venezuela and subterfuge all over the world, especially engaging in cyber
warfare.
IRAN: Iran’s military is active in Syria, Yemen, Iraq,
Afghanistan and supports active terrorism all over the third world. Iran is
also fomenting sophisticated cyber warfare.
It has about a half million active duty personnel, some air and small-vessel
naval assets, and uses the Revolutionary Guard to enforce internal order and
create threats and chaos around its borders. The recent missile attack on a
Saudi oil refinery is an example of Iran’s long-term goal of unexpected
punishment to those who are considered enemies and coupled with its increasing
nuclear threat and increasing missile capacity means that Iran plans to create
long-term trouble.
SO WHAT DO THEY THINK OF US?
CHINA: The Chinese are very proud of their culture,
although the leftover shame of colonial times still has an effect. The ideas of
freedom and liberty have never been part of their history with the rule of
Emperors and now under the Communist Party. This background lets them dismiss
Americans as scattered and undisciplined compared to their rigid society, which
is increasingly under total electronic surveillance and a system of social
credit points for each individual. When interfacing with the wider world,
Chinese (and their Vietnamese cousins) show their talent for being merchants
and while there are failures and hiccups as the Chinese society tries to meld
capitalism and communism, they will continue to insert themselves in the wider
world, with ownerships and investments, as well as being willing to steal
technology and carry on cyberwar. The Hong Kong protests and so many students
overseas may have long-term effects.
RUSSIA: Russians have never really experienced freedom and
liberty, whether under the Czars, the Communist rulers and now a corrupt mix of
leftover communists and corrupt oligarchs. A leader like Putin is able to carry
on under the Russian philosophy of: “We like strong leader”, which allows
people to survive as long as they know and follow the rules and create no
waves. As with the Chinese and Iranians, some have relatives or connections in
the Western world, but there is no way to bring back ideas from our culture and
promulgate them among the folks at home; the authorities are watching and have
no patience for adoption of Western ideals.
IRAN: Iranians have some admiration for America, in spite
of the US misadventures in the distant past and lack of support now. They have
connections with those who have escaped and try to use electronic connections
to bypass the government and religious authorities. Sanctions and price rises led to riots
recently, with more than 1,000 people shot all over Iran. Students and urban
people are protesting, but get little support from older and rural people. Iran
suffers from the kind of rural/urban split which affects most countries,
including the US, where the urban elites tend to be liberal and conservative
rural populations feel threatened by change.
